Published: 07/04/2022

The EU is largely dependent on energy commodities imported from Russia. 25% of the crude oil, 45% of the natural gas and 44% of the hard coal imported by the EU come from Russia. Yet as the Polish Economic Institute’s report entitled “An EU independent from Russia? Alternative sources of energy commodities” shows, the EU’s dependence on energy commodities can be reduced significantly. The EU could reduce gas imports from Russia by as much as 91% as already in 2022, the PEI’s analysis shows.

A significant challenge – in particular, for the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Austria, Slovenia, Latvia, Estonia, Finland and Ireland, would be the winter of 2022-2023 due to potential difficulties in filling European warehouses before the next heating season.

Hard coal

Russian coal imports to the EU have increased in recent years; in 2019, they amounted to 56 million tonnes. Russian hard coal accounts for around 45% of coal imports and around 30% of consumption. Germany and Poland import the most coal from Russia in nominal terms. Russian coal is relatively cheap, so imports of it have increased in several countries. Low supply in global markets limits the alternatives to Russian coal. Imports from the US, Australia and South Africa could potentially be increased.

In Poland, coal consumption decreased by more than 40% in 1990-2020. Currently, about 80% of the coal imported from Russia is used as fuel for households. Only around 5% is directed towards industry. The rest mainly goes to heating plants. The further decarbonization of the EU economy, including in Poland, will reduce the coal’s role as a source of energy in the coming years.

How to reduce energy commodity imports from Russia

The EU’s potential to limit imports of each type of energy commodity from Russia varies. In the short term, the resumption of exports from Iran and the use of current reserves would enable the EU to prepare to cut itself off from Russian oil long term, thereby reducing the value of Russia’s exports by more than USD 50 billion.

“The lasting diversification of oil supplies does not require significant investments in infrastructure. Already today, most of the EU’s imports arrive by sea. In the past year, as much as half of the capacity of the Naftoport Polish Oil Terminal was unused. Increasing crude oil production in North America would provide nearly 1 million barrels a day, around 40% of the crude oil imported from Russia. Additionally, the EU could increase import by 0.8 million b/d due to supply chains changes from Norway, UK and Denmark and increase in Canada export to USA.,” said Magdalena Maj.

The PEI report shows that the EU could become over 90% independent from gas deliveries from Russia. Increasing the use of existing infrastructure would help; the average use of European LNG terminals was only 46% in 2021.

A crucial part of strengthening the EU's strategic energy security when it comes to gas would be the development of infrastructure: increasing the use of LNG terminals, expanding them, and accelerating the construction of new terminals. Interconnector projects enabling the newly-created storage capacities to be fully used and filled are also needed.

In addition to diversifying energy commodity supplies, the EU could reduce demand for energy through changes in consumer behavior. The simplest way is to reduce room temperature by 1^oC during the heating season and air conditioning use by 2 ^oC during the summer. Programmes for replacing of heating sources and thermo-modernization of buildings need to be implemented, too. In transport, it is worth promoting public transport and changing driving style, to make it more efficient in terms of fuel consumption – added Maciej Miniszewski.